The beginning of the season is less than two weeks away, and so
it’s time for us to consider who will win in the first week’s slate of
games. Will the SEC have a slip up against the numerous conference foes
that they will face? Will the first conference matchup lead to some high
intensity, high drama football? Will any new weaknesses present
themselves. This is my prediction for each of the games on the SEC slate
for Week 1.
South Carolina at Vanderbilt - South Carolina has risen to the top of the SEC ranks in recent seasons, but they find themselves faced with replacing some very important contributors in 2012. They will run the ball as well as anyone in the country if they have found adequate replacements on the line. They should have a great pass rush if the defensive tackles collapse the pocket. They should be great at stopping the run if the linebackers are allowed to roam freely. For every perceived strength of the Gamecocks, there is an “if” or “but”. Vanderbilt is the most overhyped program in the country right now, with their brash, young head man James Franklin building excitement and improving their recruiting in spite of the 6-7 record in 2011. Has Vanderbilt been able to improve the talent level sufficiently to be able to compete with one of the East’s best teams? Not in a single recruiting cycle they haven’t. This game should be good for a half, but the Gamecocks’ superior talent will take over after half time. Gamecocks 31-14
Texas A&M at Louisiana Tech - Somebody forgot to tell the Aggies that SEC teams don’t go on the road to play a team like Louisiana Tech. Then again, somebody forgot to tell Tech that they weren’t very good last year. The Bulldogs surprisingly went 8-5 last year, vastly outperforming the majority of expectations. La Tech did lose a lot to attrition, and they will need to plug the holes quickly. Still, the Bulldogs are in a much more stable place than the Aggies, who have a new conference, coaching staff, quarterback, defensive scheme, etc. The Aggies will need to adapt to the changes quickly. Tech refused to lie down for Mississippi State last year, falling in overtime. In fact, of the five losses suffered by the Bulldogs, only one came by double digits. This game could be very tight for at least three quarters, but by the fourth quarter, the Aggies superior depth of talent will allow them to pull away. 34-24 Aggies
Tennessee vs. North Carolina State - The first game in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff puts the Volunteers up against the Wolfpack. The Vols started off looking very strong, putting up big numbers on offense, avoiding blowouts, and playing like a team that belongs in the SEC. Then Tyler Bray broke his thumb, and the Vols season derailed, ending in a 10-7 loss to Kentucky that revealed divisions within the locker room. That led to massive staff turnover and a major shift in defensive philosophy. NC State had a very different season, closing it out much stronger than it began. The Wolfpack were sitting at 5-5 with a 2-4 record in the ACC heading into what looked like a surefire loss, but turned into the biggest victory of the season. They wrapped things up against Maryland and Louisville, closing out with an 8-5 record. They’ll look to build on that in 2012, but can they start that road against the Vols? Probably not. NC State doesn’t look nearly as strong in the trenches on defense, and the linebackers are vulnerable. With Tennessee having placed an emphasis on improving the run game this year, they should test the Pack early and often, eventually pulling away with a few well place deep passes. 41-24 Tennessee
Buffalo at Georgia - Buffalo doesn’t really belong on the field with the Bulldogs. It is reasonable to expect the Bulls to be better in 2012, but Georgia is coming off of winning the East last year. Georgia needs a test to figure out whether or not the running game and offensive line are SEC ready, but they won’t get that test from Buffalo. This one is no contest. 50-10 Dawgs
Bowling Green at Florida - Bowling Green might be very good on offense in the upcoming season, boasting one of the most underrated passers in college football, but they don’t belong on the field with this Gator defense. The Gators have stars at every level of the defense, and even though the stats for the secondary were underwhelming at best last year, much of that had to do with an inept offense. Of course, the offense might not be much better this year, but the Falcons aren’t a defense capable of provide a sufficient challenge. Florida 38-13
Clemson vs. Auburn - Game Two of the Chick-fil-A Kickoff matches up two familiar foes, with the overall record in the semi-rivalry standing at 34-12-2 in favor of Auburn. Clemson picked up their first win over the Tigers from Alabama since 1951 last season, and they hope to build upon that victory. Clemson looks plenty capable of doing just that when you look at the skill players, but there is an extreme weakness in the trenches for the South Carolinians. Auburn has very few proven playmakers, but they may be able to pound the rock with their superior size and experience in the trenches. Still, big plays lead to big wins, so I’m going to call for the first non-conference loss for the SEC of 2012. Clemson 34-24
Jacksonville St. vs. Arkansas - Few teams faced the kind of turmoil the Razorbacks did in this last offseason. The Razorbacks were a consensus top ten team until then head coach Bobby Petrino decided to try and create his on version ofA Series of Unfortunate Events. With his dismissal, a series of arrests followed, and now the roster is five people lighter. Those five dismissed include arguably the most explosive playmaker they had in Marquel Wade. Finding playmakers will be a challenge, and there are clear issues in the trenches as a pair of walk-ons are part of the starting offensive line. Of course, that won’t matter against this group of Gamecocks, as Jacksonville St. doesn’t really match up favorably anywhere. 56-7 Razorbacks
North Texas at Louisiana State - North Texas isn’t very likely to provide much of a challenge to the Bayou Bengals, but there is reason to pay attention to this game. LSU was banking on Tyrann Mathieu being able to take out half the field, redirecting traffic toward Tharold Simon, a 6’3” ball-hawk. Now, teams will redirect their attention to the Honey Badger’s replacement. Although there really isn’t any risk of the Tigers losing, the Mean Green will be a chance to see how the secondary works together. Also look and see what the Tiger receivers do in this game, as any struggles could signal another difficult year through the air. Tigers 48-7
Southeastern Louisiana at Missouri - Welcome to the most lopside game of the opening weekend in the SEC. This game is only worth watching because of the debut of Dorial Green-Beckham, a future star in the conference. 49-0 Mizzou
Central Arkansas at Ole Miss - This is an interesting game. The Bears of Central Arkansas were an FCS playoff team last year, providing challenges to Arkansas State and Louisiana Tech and beating now FBS member Texas State. Ole Miss was content to simply beat themselves in 2011, going 2-10 with a 27-7 loss to Louisiana Tech, a team Central Arkansas took to overtime before falling 42-48. There is a little hope in Oxford as native son Hugh Freeze takes over the program. He had great success at Arkansas State and defeated Central Arkansas 53-24 with the Red Wolves last year. What does all this mean? It might mean an interesting matchup with the potential to end similarly to Ole Miss’s 2010 opener against Jacksonville St., a 49-48 overtime loss that set the tone for the season. Rebel Black Bears 32-27
Jackson St. at Mississippi St - This falls into the skip it catagory. Jackson St. is out-classed. Bulldogs 31-9
Michigan vs. Alabama - This is the marquee game of Week 1, matching a BCS bowl team from the Big Ten with the defending national champions. Alabama was ravaged by attrition, but Nick Saban is seldom forced to rebuild. The Tide are likely to be amongst the nation’s best. Michigan was a surprise team last season after they had been a relative non-factor under Rich Rodriguez. Now, the Wolverines look like a possible national championship contender. This is a game in which Michigan has everything to gain and nothing to lose. If they fall to Alabama, it’s okay because they were expected to. If they win, they shock the college football world and shoot up in the rankings. For Alabama, no good can come of this game. If they win, they’ve simply met expectation. In fact, if they don’t dominate, it could be perceived as a bad sign and hurt their ranking. Lose and the Tide will be forced to spend a month addressing questions about their own talent and the conference’s standing in the college football world. Michigan is likely to come out fired up while Alabama will approach the game as business as usual. This should lead to a hard fought, fun game that ultimately ends in an SEC victory. Alabama 31-24
Kentucky at Louisville - The final SEC game of the weekend is Kentucky’s desparate attempt to right a ship that was rapidly sinking until they started to bail out against the Vols in the final game of the season. Kentucky is lacking talent, depth, and coaching. Louisville has all three. In fact, the Cardinals look much more like an SEC team than Kentucky does. That is a credit to the job that Charlie Strong has done with this team. Strong has brough in talent from around the country, and now the Cardinals look ready to dominate the Big East. Look for Teddy Bridgewater to emerge this season in much the same way that Robert Griffin III did last season. Looking at Louisville’s schedule, it’s hard to find more than one potential loss, and trust me when I say that the danger isn’t coming from the Wildcats. Louisville 41-14
South Carolina at Vanderbilt - South Carolina has risen to the top of the SEC ranks in recent seasons, but they find themselves faced with replacing some very important contributors in 2012. They will run the ball as well as anyone in the country if they have found adequate replacements on the line. They should have a great pass rush if the defensive tackles collapse the pocket. They should be great at stopping the run if the linebackers are allowed to roam freely. For every perceived strength of the Gamecocks, there is an “if” or “but”. Vanderbilt is the most overhyped program in the country right now, with their brash, young head man James Franklin building excitement and improving their recruiting in spite of the 6-7 record in 2011. Has Vanderbilt been able to improve the talent level sufficiently to be able to compete with one of the East’s best teams? Not in a single recruiting cycle they haven’t. This game should be good for a half, but the Gamecocks’ superior talent will take over after half time. Gamecocks 31-14
Texas A&M at Louisiana Tech - Somebody forgot to tell the Aggies that SEC teams don’t go on the road to play a team like Louisiana Tech. Then again, somebody forgot to tell Tech that they weren’t very good last year. The Bulldogs surprisingly went 8-5 last year, vastly outperforming the majority of expectations. La Tech did lose a lot to attrition, and they will need to plug the holes quickly. Still, the Bulldogs are in a much more stable place than the Aggies, who have a new conference, coaching staff, quarterback, defensive scheme, etc. The Aggies will need to adapt to the changes quickly. Tech refused to lie down for Mississippi State last year, falling in overtime. In fact, of the five losses suffered by the Bulldogs, only one came by double digits. This game could be very tight for at least three quarters, but by the fourth quarter, the Aggies superior depth of talent will allow them to pull away. 34-24 Aggies
Tennessee vs. North Carolina State - The first game in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff puts the Volunteers up against the Wolfpack. The Vols started off looking very strong, putting up big numbers on offense, avoiding blowouts, and playing like a team that belongs in the SEC. Then Tyler Bray broke his thumb, and the Vols season derailed, ending in a 10-7 loss to Kentucky that revealed divisions within the locker room. That led to massive staff turnover and a major shift in defensive philosophy. NC State had a very different season, closing it out much stronger than it began. The Wolfpack were sitting at 5-5 with a 2-4 record in the ACC heading into what looked like a surefire loss, but turned into the biggest victory of the season. They wrapped things up against Maryland and Louisville, closing out with an 8-5 record. They’ll look to build on that in 2012, but can they start that road against the Vols? Probably not. NC State doesn’t look nearly as strong in the trenches on defense, and the linebackers are vulnerable. With Tennessee having placed an emphasis on improving the run game this year, they should test the Pack early and often, eventually pulling away with a few well place deep passes. 41-24 Tennessee
Buffalo at Georgia - Buffalo doesn’t really belong on the field with the Bulldogs. It is reasonable to expect the Bulls to be better in 2012, but Georgia is coming off of winning the East last year. Georgia needs a test to figure out whether or not the running game and offensive line are SEC ready, but they won’t get that test from Buffalo. This one is no contest. 50-10 Dawgs
Bowling Green at Florida - Bowling Green might be very good on offense in the upcoming season, boasting one of the most underrated passers in college football, but they don’t belong on the field with this Gator defense. The Gators have stars at every level of the defense, and even though the stats for the secondary were underwhelming at best last year, much of that had to do with an inept offense. Of course, the offense might not be much better this year, but the Falcons aren’t a defense capable of provide a sufficient challenge. Florida 38-13
Clemson vs. Auburn - Game Two of the Chick-fil-A Kickoff matches up two familiar foes, with the overall record in the semi-rivalry standing at 34-12-2 in favor of Auburn. Clemson picked up their first win over the Tigers from Alabama since 1951 last season, and they hope to build upon that victory. Clemson looks plenty capable of doing just that when you look at the skill players, but there is an extreme weakness in the trenches for the South Carolinians. Auburn has very few proven playmakers, but they may be able to pound the rock with their superior size and experience in the trenches. Still, big plays lead to big wins, so I’m going to call for the first non-conference loss for the SEC of 2012. Clemson 34-24
Jacksonville St. vs. Arkansas - Few teams faced the kind of turmoil the Razorbacks did in this last offseason. The Razorbacks were a consensus top ten team until then head coach Bobby Petrino decided to try and create his on version ofA Series of Unfortunate Events. With his dismissal, a series of arrests followed, and now the roster is five people lighter. Those five dismissed include arguably the most explosive playmaker they had in Marquel Wade. Finding playmakers will be a challenge, and there are clear issues in the trenches as a pair of walk-ons are part of the starting offensive line. Of course, that won’t matter against this group of Gamecocks, as Jacksonville St. doesn’t really match up favorably anywhere. 56-7 Razorbacks
North Texas at Louisiana State - North Texas isn’t very likely to provide much of a challenge to the Bayou Bengals, but there is reason to pay attention to this game. LSU was banking on Tyrann Mathieu being able to take out half the field, redirecting traffic toward Tharold Simon, a 6’3” ball-hawk. Now, teams will redirect their attention to the Honey Badger’s replacement. Although there really isn’t any risk of the Tigers losing, the Mean Green will be a chance to see how the secondary works together. Also look and see what the Tiger receivers do in this game, as any struggles could signal another difficult year through the air. Tigers 48-7
Southeastern Louisiana at Missouri - Welcome to the most lopside game of the opening weekend in the SEC. This game is only worth watching because of the debut of Dorial Green-Beckham, a future star in the conference. 49-0 Mizzou
Central Arkansas at Ole Miss - This is an interesting game. The Bears of Central Arkansas were an FCS playoff team last year, providing challenges to Arkansas State and Louisiana Tech and beating now FBS member Texas State. Ole Miss was content to simply beat themselves in 2011, going 2-10 with a 27-7 loss to Louisiana Tech, a team Central Arkansas took to overtime before falling 42-48. There is a little hope in Oxford as native son Hugh Freeze takes over the program. He had great success at Arkansas State and defeated Central Arkansas 53-24 with the Red Wolves last year. What does all this mean? It might mean an interesting matchup with the potential to end similarly to Ole Miss’s 2010 opener against Jacksonville St., a 49-48 overtime loss that set the tone for the season. Rebel Black Bears 32-27
Jackson St. at Mississippi St - This falls into the skip it catagory. Jackson St. is out-classed. Bulldogs 31-9
Michigan vs. Alabama - This is the marquee game of Week 1, matching a BCS bowl team from the Big Ten with the defending national champions. Alabama was ravaged by attrition, but Nick Saban is seldom forced to rebuild. The Tide are likely to be amongst the nation’s best. Michigan was a surprise team last season after they had been a relative non-factor under Rich Rodriguez. Now, the Wolverines look like a possible national championship contender. This is a game in which Michigan has everything to gain and nothing to lose. If they fall to Alabama, it’s okay because they were expected to. If they win, they shock the college football world and shoot up in the rankings. For Alabama, no good can come of this game. If they win, they’ve simply met expectation. In fact, if they don’t dominate, it could be perceived as a bad sign and hurt their ranking. Lose and the Tide will be forced to spend a month addressing questions about their own talent and the conference’s standing in the college football world. Michigan is likely to come out fired up while Alabama will approach the game as business as usual. This should lead to a hard fought, fun game that ultimately ends in an SEC victory. Alabama 31-24
Kentucky at Louisville - The final SEC game of the weekend is Kentucky’s desparate attempt to right a ship that was rapidly sinking until they started to bail out against the Vols in the final game of the season. Kentucky is lacking talent, depth, and coaching. Louisville has all three. In fact, the Cardinals look much more like an SEC team than Kentucky does. That is a credit to the job that Charlie Strong has done with this team. Strong has brough in talent from around the country, and now the Cardinals look ready to dominate the Big East. Look for Teddy Bridgewater to emerge this season in much the same way that Robert Griffin III did last season. Looking at Louisville’s schedule, it’s hard to find more than one potential loss, and trust me when I say that the danger isn’t coming from the Wildcats. Louisville 41-14
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